Coast FIRE Calculator Assumptions & Methodology
Coast FIRE calculations depend on a small set of assumptions: investment growth, inflation, investment costs, retirement spending, withdrawal rate, and time.
This page explains the assumptions used when our Coast FIRE Calculator first loads, shows exactly how they affect the calculation, and compares them with verified economic and market data.
Calculator defaults are starting values for a mathematical model. They are not forecasts, guarantees, or recommendations.
All four assumptions are editable. Changing one or more of them changes the modeled Coast FIRE result. Default does not mean recommended.
📑 Table of Contents▼
Live Calculator Defaults
| Assumption | Current Default | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Nominal investment return | 7.0% | Annual investment-growth assumption before inflation and modeled fees |
| Inflation | 3.0% | Annual price-growth assumption used to convert nominal growth into real purchasing-power growth |
| Investment fees | 0.10% | Annual investment-cost assumption deducted by the model |
| Withdrawal rate | 4.0% | Assumption used to convert annual retirement spending into a modeled retirement portfolio target |
| Net real return | 3.79% | Result produced by the calculator's current return, inflation, and fee assumptions |
All four assumptions are editable.
Changing one or more of them changes the modeled Coast FIRE result.
Not Every Percentage Means the Same Thing
Financial percentages often appear next to one another even though they describe very different things.
Our site separates them into five categories.
Observed Data
A measurement of something that has already happened.
That is an observed historical statistic. It is not a 30-year inflation forecast.
Historical Result
A return or other result measured over a completed historical period.
Historical returns can provide context, but they do not determine future investment returns.
Market-Implied Measure
A value inferred from prices in financial markets.
This is a market-implied measure rather than a guaranteed forecast.
Policy Goal or Projection
A target or projection published by a government or policy institution.
A policy goal is different from both current inflation and a Coast FIRE calculator assumption.
Calculator Assumption
A value entered into a mathematical model.
These values tell the calculator what scenario to calculate. They do not tell us what will happen in the future.
How the Coast FIRE Math Connects
The calculator combines three main calculations.
Retirement Portfolio Target
Spending ÷ Withdrawal-Rate Assumption
Fee- & Inflation-Adjusted Growth
((1 + Nominal − Fees) ÷ (1 + Inflation)) − 1
Coast FIRE Present Value
Target ÷ (1 + Real Return)^Years
Stage 1: Calculate the Retirement Portfolio Target
The calculator starts with modeled annual retirement spending.
The basic relationship is:
For example:
The 4% figure is an example calculator input, not a statement that 4% is appropriate for every retirement.
Stage 2: Calculate the Fee- and Inflation-Adjusted Return
Our calculator currently uses:
Using the current defaults:
- nominal return = 7%
- investment fees = 0.10%
- inflation = 3%
This is the calculator's fee-adjusted, inflation-adjusted growth rate.
It should not be interpreted as a prediction of future real investment returns.
Stage 3: Calculate the Coast FIRE Number
The calculator then works backward from the future retirement target.
This is a present-value calculation.
It asks:
How much would need to be invested today for the model to reach the selected future retirement target under the assumptions entered?
Why Assumptions Matter
The Coast FIRE calculation contains compound growth.
That means changing return, inflation, investment fees, or the number of years until retirement can change the modeled starting amount substantially.
Retirement spending and the withdrawal-rate assumption also matter because they determine the future portfolio target.
The important point is not that one assumption is "better."
1. Investment Return Assumption
Current Calculator Default: 7.0% Nominal
The nominal investment return is the annual growth rate entered before the calculator adjusts for inflation and modeled investment fees.
This is an editable calculator assumption.
It is not a forecast of future portfolio performance.
Historical Returns and Future Returns Are Different
Historical stock-market returns can provide useful context, but several choices affect any historical return number:
- which index is measured;
- which start and end dates are used;
- whether dividends are included;
- whether the number is nominal or inflation-adjusted;
- whether investment costs are deducted;
- and whether the return is an arithmetic average or compound annualized return.
For this reason, we do not treat one historical market average as the automatically correct Coast FIRE return assumption.
The S&P 500, maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices, is one commonly referenced U.S. large-cap equity index.
Its historical performance changes depending on the period measured.
Past index performance does not establish what a future portfolio will earn.
Average Return Is Not Always Compound Return
Imagine an investment starting at $100.
Year 1
Year 2
The simple arithmetic average of +50% and −50% is:
0%But the portfolio did not return to $100. It ended at:
$75This is why simply averaging yearly returns is not the same as measuring compounded investment growth.
FINRA educational material distinguishes annualized performance from simple averages when evaluating returns over multiple periods.
How Changing the Return Assumption Changes Coast FIRE
The following example keeps everything else constant:
- annual retirement spending: $50,000
- withdrawal-rate assumption: 4%
- retirement target: $1,250,000
- inflation: 3%
- investment fees: 0.10%
- years until retirement: 35
| Return Scenario | Real Return | Modeled Coast FIRE Number |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 1.84% | $659,281 |
| 6.0% | 2.82% | $472,993 |
| 7.0% Current Default | 3.79% | $340,403 |
| 8.0% | 4.76% | $245,732 |
| 9.0% | 5.73% | $177,925 |
These are mathematical scenarios.
They are not forecasts of investment returns.
A higher assumed return gives the model more compound growth and therefore produces a lower present-value Coast target.
A lower assumed return produces a higher present-value target.
2. Inflation Assumption
Current Calculator Default: 3.0%
Inflation describes changes in prices over time.
Our calculator uses inflation when converting nominal investment growth into a real, purchasing-power-adjusted return.
This is a long-term model input.
It is not the current inflation rate and it is not an inflation forecast.
Inflation Is Not One Number
Several useful inflation-related figures are available today, but they answer different questions.
Current CPI Inflation
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 3.4% over the 12 months ending July 2026.
The CPI excluding food and energy increased: 2.5%
This describes price changes over the previous 12 months. It does not describe what inflation will average over the next 20, 30, or 40 years.
Current PCE Inflation
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE price index increased 3.7% from June 2025 to June 2026.
PCE excluding food and energy increased: 3.3%
PCE and CPI are related measures, but they are constructed differently.
10-Year Breakeven Inflation
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED series reported 2.31% on August 28, 2026 for the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate.
The breakeven rate is derived from nominal Treasury securities and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. It reflects a market-implied inflation measure over approximately the next 10 years. It is not guaranteed future inflation.
Federal Reserve Longer-Run Inflation Goal
The Federal Reserve states that its longer-run inflation goal is 2% measured using the: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index.
This is not the same as current CPI. It is also not the same thing as the calculator's 3% inflation assumption.
Calculator Inflation Assumption
These figures should not be blended together as though they mean the same thing.
| Inflation Figure | Current Value | Type |
|---|---|---|
| CPI-U, 12 months ending July 2026 | 3.4% | Observed data |
| Core CPI | 2.5% | Observed data |
| PCE, 12 months ending June 2026 | 3.7% | Observed data |
| Core PCE | 3.3% | Observed data |
| 10-Year Breakeven, Aug. 28, 2026 | 2.31% | Market-implied |
| Federal Reserve longer-run goal | 2.0% PCE | Policy goal |
| Coast FIRE calculator | 3.0% | Calculator assumption |
CPI and PCE Are Different
CPI and PCE both measure consumer-price changes, but they are not identical.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPI.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the PCE price index.
The Federal Reserve defines its 2% longer-run inflation goal using PCE inflation.
That is why a statement such as:
"The Fed target is 2%"
should not be interpreted as:
"CPI will be 2%."
They are different concepts.
How Changing Inflation Changes the Coast FIRE Result
This example keeps:
- nominal return: 7%
- fees: 0.10%
- retirement spending: $50,000
- withdrawal-rate assumption: 4%
- years until retirement: 35
| Inflation Scenario | Net Real Return | Modeled Coast FIRE Number |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 4.80% | $241,934 |
| 2.5% | 4.29% | $287,095 |
| 3.0% Current Default | 3.79% | $340,403 |
| 3.5% | 3.29% | $403,276 |
| 4.0% | 2.79% | $477,372 |
These are mathematical scenarios, not inflation forecasts.
With all other inputs unchanged, a higher inflation assumption lowers the model's real growth rate and increases the Coast FIRE amount required today.
3. Investment Fees
Current Calculator Default: 0.10%
Investment fees are costs that reduce the return remaining in the model to compound.
The calculator deducts the selected fee assumption from nominal growth before applying its inflation adjustment.
This is a simplified annual modeling input.
Actual investment costs depend on the investments, account, plan, and services involved.
What Current Fund-Fee Data Shows
The Investment Company Institute reported the following asset-weighted average expense ratios for 2025:
2025 asset-weighted averages reported by ICI. These figures describe categories in ICI's dataset. They do not determine the cost of an individual portfolio. They also do not mean the calculator's 0.10% default applies to every investor.
What Fees Can Include
Investment costs can take different forms.
Depending on the account or investment arrangement, costs may include:
- fund expense ratios;
- investment-management costs;
- plan administration fees;
- advisory fees;
- account or service fees;
- transaction-related costs.
The U.S. Department of Labor's Employee Benefits Security Administration separately discusses plan administration, investment, and individual service fees in retirement plans.
Our calculator uses one annual fee percentage as a simplified model input.
SEC Example: Why Fee Differences Compound
Investor.gov provides a hypothetical example starting with $100,000 with 4% annual growth over 20 years:
| Annual Fee | Approximate Ending Value |
|---|---|
| 0.25% | $208,000 |
| 0.50% | $198,000 |
| 1.00% | $179,000 |
This SEC example demonstrates the mathematical effect of ongoing fees over time.
It does not identify an appropriate Coast FIRE fee assumption.
How Changing Fees Changes the Coast FIRE Result
This example keeps:
- nominal return: 7%
- inflation: 3%
- retirement spending: $50,000
- withdrawal-rate assumption: 4%
- years until retirement: 35
| Annual Fee Scenario | Net Real Return | Modeled Coast FIRE Number |
|---|---|---|
| 0.03% | 3.85% | $332,693 |
| 0.10% Current Default | 3.79% | $340,403 |
| 0.50% | 3.40% | $388,129 |
| 1.00% | 2.91% | $457,623 |
| 1.50% | 2.43% | $539,979 |
These are model scenarios.
They do not describe the fees of any particular investment account.
4. Withdrawal-Rate Assumption
Current Calculator Default: 4.0%
The withdrawal-rate assumption converts modeled annual retirement spending into a future retirement portfolio target.
The relationship is:
For $50,000 of annual retirement spending:
| Withdrawal-Rate Scenario | Spending Multiple | Modeled Retirement Target |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | 33.3× | $1,666,667 |
| 3.25% | 30.8× | $1,538,462 |
| 3.5% | 28.6× | $1,428,571 |
| 4.0% Current Default | 25.0× | $1,250,000 |
| 4.5% | 22.2× | $1,111,111 |
A lower withdrawal-rate assumption creates a larger modeled retirement target.
A higher withdrawal-rate assumption creates a smaller modeled retirement target.
That is a mathematical relationship.
It does not establish which percentage applies to a particular retirement.
Where the 4% Discussion Comes From
The commonly discussed 4% withdrawal concept has roots in historical retirement research.
William P. Bengen
"Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data"
Philip L. Cooley, Carl M. Hubbard, Daniel T. Walz
"Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable"
In 1994, William P. Bengen published "Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data" in the Journal of Financial Planning. The study examined retirement withdrawals using historical U.S. investment returns and inflation data.
In 1998, Philip L. Cooley, Carl M. Hubbard, and Daniel T. Walz published "Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable". The research examined different:
- withdrawal rates;
- portfolio allocations;
- retirement periods;
- and historical market sequences.
Those studies describe results produced by their specific historical datasets and assumptions.
They do not guarantee future retirement outcomes.
How Withdrawal Rate Changes the Coast FIRE Number
Keeping these values constant:
- annual retirement spending: $50,000
- nominal return: 7%
- inflation: 3%
- fees: 0.10%
- years until retirement: 35
| Withdrawal Rate | Retirement Target | Modeled Coast FIRE Number |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | 33.3× | $1,666,667 |
| 3.25% | 30.8× | $1,538,462 |
| 3.5% | 28.6× | $1,428,571 |
| 4.0% Current Default | 25.0× | $1,250,000 |
| 4.5% | 22.2× | $1,111,111 |
These percentages are scenario inputs.
They are not recommendations.
Change One Assumption
The easiest way to understand assumptions is to keep everything else unchanged.
Example scenario: The ages, spending, portfolio balance, savings amount, and percentages shown below are demonstration inputs used to explain the calculator. They are not suggested or typical values.
Example baseline:
Baseline result:
Changing only one input lets you see which part of the calculation moved.
Change return
Changes the modeled real growth rate.
Change inflation
Changes the modeled real growth rate.
Change fees
Changes the modeled real growth rate.
Change withdrawal rate
Changes the modeled retirement portfolio target.
Change One Assumption
Isolate any single variable below to see how it shifts your required starting capital and growth rate against baseline defaults.
Scenario context only: Current portfolio and monthly savings are shown for context in this example. They do not change the Coast FIRE target calculated in this assumption comparison.
This page isolates single variables. The Assumption Lab allows full multi-variable stress testing.
How All Four Assumptions Work Together
The calculation can be viewed as two paths.
The two paths then combine with time:
Exact Calculator Formula
The current production calculation engine implements the following exact functions:
target = adjustedSpending / withdrawalRate;export function calculateRealReturn(
nominalReturn: number,
inflationRate: number,
fees: number
): number {
const netNominal = 1 + nominalReturn - fees;
const inflationFactor = 1 + inflationRate;
if (inflationFactor <= 0) {
throw new RangeError('Inflation factor must be positive');
}
return netNominal / inflationFactor - 1;
}coastFireNumber = target / Math.pow(1 + realReturn, yearsToRetirement);Verified Sources & Methodology Registries
The external figures and research references used on this page are linked to government agencies, regulators, Federal Reserve data, index providers, industry research organizations, and original research sources.
CPI-U July 2026: 3.4%
Government Statistical Agency
PCE Price Index June 2026: 3.7%
Government Statistical Agency
10-Year Breakeven Aug 28, 2026: 2.31%
Federal Reserve Market Data (T10YIE)
2% PCE Longer-Run Goal
Policy Institution
S&P 500 Historical Context
Historical index performance is used as market context only. It does not determine the calculator's future return assumption.
2025 Asset-Weighted Expense Ratios
Industry Research
$100k 20-Yr Fee Impact Study
U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission
Annualized Return Concepts
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority
Retirement-Plan Fee Categories
Employee Benefits Security Administration
Withdrawal-Rate Study (1994)
Journal of Financial Planning • FPA
Trinity Study (1998)
Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable • AAII
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about calculator defaults, inflation math, and long-term planning assumptions.
How were the default baseline assumptions (7% return, 3% inflation, 0.10% fees, 4% SWR) selected?▼
Why does the calculator use real (inflation-adjusted) returns instead of nominal compounding?▼
How are investment fees subtracted in the calculation engine?▼
How do short-term inflation or market changes relate to long-term calculator assumptions?▼
Why do different Coast FIRE calculators give completely different targets?▼
Do calculator defaults represent guaranteed or "safe" financial outcomes?▼
Selected Next Steps
Ready to model your own numbers or explore specific life scenarios?
Main Coast FIRE Calculator
Calculate your Coast FIRE date and portfolio target with live inputs.
Scenario TestingCoast FIRE Assumption Lab
Stress-test custom multi-variable return, inflation, and fee scenarios.
Advanced ModelingAdvanced Coast FIRE Calculator
Integrate pension streams, Social Security, and bridge income.
Step-by-Step GuideHow to Calculate Coast FIRE
Worked manual calculation examples and formula walk-throughs.
Mathematical GuideCoast FIRE Formula Explained
Comprehensive breakdown of compound growth and discounting math.
DocumentationFull Calculation Methodology
Detailed formulas, engine architecture, and calculation documentation.